Today I am going to predict one of three players that I do not think will live up to the hype that fans gave them. I hope these 3 players go on to successful careers and are not busts, however, these are just my predictions. I hope you enjoy!
I believe Luka Doncic will be a victim of coming over from Europe expecting to play similar basketball in America then how it is in Europe. In reality, the NBA is a lot more physical and Doncic does not show that when I study his game tape. I found out something very interesting when going over statistics. That is personal fouls and the fact that players who commit more personal fouls in the Euro League tend to be more successful in the NBA. You may be thinking, personal fouls is a bad thing. However personal fouls can show how physical a player is. If a player backs off from contact, he will not commit the foul. On the other hand, if you commit the foul, you may be asking for contact, which can be a good thing. Let me show you a few examples.
Porzingis(2.4 Average Fouls in Time Spent in Euro League)(All-Star)
Milos Teodosic(2.4 Average Fouls)(9.4 PPG, 4.9 APG)(Excellent Passer, Has Great Court Vision)
Bogdan Bogdanovic(2.2 Average Fouls)(11.8 PPG, 14.33 Player Efficiency Rating)(Rising Stars Challenge MVP)
Not As Succesful:
Mario Hezonja(1.4 Average Fouls)(9.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.2 APG)(5th Pick – Considered A Bust)
Frank Ntilikina(1.7 Average Fouls)(5.4 PPG, 3.1 APG, 6.77 Player Efficiency Rating)(8th Pick)(Only a rookie, however so far not living up to potential)
When I look at those players above, I see a trend. Players who put up over 2 average fouls a game tend to be more successful. I am not trying to say that someone who fouls at every game will be awesome in the NBA because what that means is that player does not know how to play basketball. I am trying to say that the NBA is the most physical basketball league in the world. And I do not see Doncic having the ability to stay afloat with 28-year-olds in their prime.
Another mini type of physical area he has to improve on is his defensive pick and rolls. I found that he would be eliminated when there was a screen. He does not have the athleticism to get around the screen in time, which is something that all NBA players should be able to do.
Luka Doncic tends to try and force something out of a possession. In American college, you are learned to try different plays out. If one does not work, you should not panic. You should have a backup play to rely on. This is why players coming out of colleges such as Duke and Kentucky perform well in the NBA. They develop a high basketball IQ, which few Euro League players have. Other then Milos Teodosic, I have not seen an outstanding basketball IQ from a player coming out of Europe in recent years.
Doncic will notice that a play is broken. Instead of resetting an going to a backup play, he may force a wild shot. He may chuck something up, even if there is still a good 15 seconds on the shot clock. He tends to miss a lot of 3-pointers if they are contested. In the NBA, players tend to guard players very tight. If he shoots something wild because a play is broken, he will never get a big money contract on an NBA roster.
If he is not forcing a shot after a broken play, he may drive to the basket. When he drives he may go for a layup and try and get a foul call. Sometimes you see plays where a player is open however Doncic is set on scoring. Instead of passing to his wide open player he will drive to the basket and go for a tough layup. In the NBA as a guard, you need outstanding athleticism. I am not sure if Doncic has that.
Thank you for reading this post, and I hope you did enjoy. Make sure to stay tuned for Part 2!